Probabilities in the Galaxy

The age of the universe is given today at approximately 13.8 billion years. About 600 million years later, our galaxy, the Milky Way, was born. Therefore, according to the current state of knowledge, the age of our galaxy is 13.21 billion years.
It took another 8.7 billion years for our solar system to develop. The age of the solar system and the earth is therefore about 4.5 billion years.
It took another 500 million years to develop life. The emergence of life on earth is about 4-5 billion years back. If "life" takes about half a billion years to develop on a planet, then the first civilizations may have appeared in our galaxy about 12.7 billion years ago. Since then, thousands of technological civilizations have emerged and may have passed. It is therefore probable that even today a high-tech civilization exists in the galaxy that has existed for several hundred thousand years. We would therefore still be young compared to these other, older civilizations.



The development history of an intelligent species, from the origin of the species to high-tech civilization, can be divided into the following level of development or civilization levels:

However, it cannot be decided whether levels 9 and 10 are possible at all. It can also be assumed that such a level of development should lie far outside our present conceptual capacity and probably also occurs very rarely in the universe, so that only individual cases are to be expected here.

Since the first eight steps form a logical development chain and can be more or less empirically proven, these steps will serve as a basis for the next considerations.

An interesting conclusion can be drawn from the durations of human development levels, i.e. from level 2. To do this, you must first display the duration of a development level as a function of the development level

An approximation function can be determined with a table program (e.g. Excel). It therefore applies approximately for the duration of a development stage:

6.1.1 Equation

m > 1

You can enter all values of the development level function in a table to get a better overview:

The function is illustrated in the following two illustrations.



The relationship becomes more apparent when one logarithms the time axis.

For level 7, the planetary level, according to the calculation, a period of 170 years is needed. Since humanity only about 50 years ago, by the moon landing, the seventh level has climbed, so we will still need about 120 years until we start to operate interstellar space travel.
So we won't have interstellar space travel until the 22nd century. With a development span of 80 years, i.e. to master interstellar space travel, the following predictions can be made for level 8:

If in the 22nd century mankind is engaged in interstellar space travel and can convince itself of the conditions.
As a result, all probability factors for the distribution of planets, life, intelligence and civilization that are being developed here will be determined with sufficient accuracy within the next two centuries.
Thus, the model developed here also transforms into a simple, empirical distribution model with regard to habitable planets, life, intelligence and civilizations in our galaxy.
In this respect, all derived parameters can or will be empirically verifiable in principle. Therefore the whole model is falsifiable and meets Popper's requirements.

If equation 6.1.1 is applied to the first stage of development, we obtain 20 million years. If one compares this with the evolution of man, the following facts result:
The oldest species of the genus Homo are Homo rudolfensis and Homo habilis. All known finds of Homo habilis were dated to an age of about 2.1 to 1.5 million years. The finds of Homo rudolfensis surrendered to 1.9 million years.
At 20 million years, the function for the development levels delivers a much higher value than the empirical data. Therefore, the original evel of the function is specified here with m > 2.
But one could also consider that the preliminary level of humanity took much longer than previously assumed.

With the given data, a review of the development levels can be made. One can compare the times given by the development level function with the empirical conditions.
The moon landing in 1969 means the entry into level 7, the planetary stage. With the construction of the International Space Station ISS 2009, the satellites to the asteroids and Mars, the planned Mars landings and the upcoming commercial use of space, we are on the best way to expand in the solar system. What corresponds to the "planetary level".

The beginning of level 6, i.e. the technological stage, lies 430 years earlier at 1539 or is therefore to be put into the 16th century.
The discovery of America by Christopher Columbus did not take place until 1492. Vasco Da Gama found the sea route to India in 1498. 1519-1521 Fernando Magellan made his circumnavigation and Francis Drake repeated this from 1577-1580. The 16th century is also sometimes referred to as the century of discoveries. Around 1600, half of the earth's surface is known, but only part of the land area.
The thesis attack in Wittenberg, at which Martin Luther published his 95 theses, is said to have taken place in 1517. Galileo Galilei lived from 1564-1642 and through Johannes Kepler (1571-1630) the first scientific explanation of the solar system existed.
The seafaring achievements of that time promoted technology in shipping. With Galileo's telescope 1608 and 1595 by the lens makers Hans and Zacharias Janssen with the microscope, new technological applications arose. Kepler's planetary theory was also the basis for further developments.
The period from the 15th to the 16th century is also called Renaissance, which means rebirth. The Renaissance is regarded as a European cultural epoch, in the period of upheaval from the Middle Ages to modern times. The Renaissance thus represents the transition from level 5 to level 6.
Therefore, the 16th century can be seen as a turning point at which humanity has begun the 6th level of its evolution towards a technological development.

The beginning of level 5 is again about 1300 - 1500 years earlier than at stage 6, i.e. at 200 to 0, i.e. about the turn of time.
The turn of time thus represents the transition from level 4 to level 5. In European history, the Middle Ages marked the period between the end of antiquity and the beginning of modern times, i.e. approximately the period between the 6th and 15th centuries. This fits in well with the "intermediate level"

The beginning of level 4 is again about 5000 years earlier than at stage 6, i.e. at 5000 BC. This includes the Bronze Age (2200 to 800 BC) as well as the Iron Age (from 1200 BC). Here one also finds the ancient races, like Sumerians, Egyptians, Hittites, Cush, Minoans, Babylonians, Greeks, Romans, Carthaginians, Israelites, Chinese, Indians etc. This fits in well with the "Ancient Level".

The beginning of level 3 is again about 28,000 years earlier than in stage 4, i.e. 33,000 BC. The date of the beginning of agriculture is around 11,000 B.C. The oldest settlement finds date from the same period.
The first ceramic figures can be dated to at least 29,000 years. About 35,000 years ago, cave painting was developed in southern France. The earliest finds of ivory carvings of figurines in Europe date from this period. The oldest evidence of a bone flute is also dated about 35,000 years. This fits in well with the "primitive level.

The beginning of level 2 is again about 310,000 years earlier than at stage 3, i.e. at 343,000 BC. It's a good match with the oldest finds of Homo sapiens.

This results in a good overall agreement between the development level function and the empirical data. Which raises the question of how long it took humanity as a whole to develop. The sum of all development times T_M from level 2 results:

Then T_M is the average development time or life span of a civilization.

Another way to determine the development time of a civilization is to calculate the area under the time function T_m, which corresponds to the total time of a civilization.
So you have to form the integral over the time function to get the total time span. The total development time of a civilization corresponds to the integral over the time function of a civilization.

.

6.1.3 Equation

#

T_All = 2/5 · 10⁷ · (1-5 – 8-5)
T_All= 3,999,877.93 years

That is almost 4 million years for the total development period of a civilization, from the preliminary level to interstellar space travel. This is quite in line with the empirical data. If you take the time from level 2 to level 8, i.e. the time of purely human development, then the following applies:

T_Homo = 2/5 · 10⁷ · (2-5 – 8-5) = 124,877.92 years

This is the minimum development time for an intelligent species from the primitive level to technological civilization.
Then it is to be expected that a civilization will exist 2-3 times longer, i.e. between 250,000 and 375,000 years. This could then be understood as the average life span of a civilization.
The sum of all development times T_m gives &sum T_m = 342,980 years. Compared with the empirical 300,000 - 350,000 years that humans have needed, there is a good consensus here..
The time for prepress is the difference between the total time and the minimum development time. The preliminary level thus took 3.875 million years, which is roughly in line with the empirical data.

The development stage function presented so far was determined by an approximation. This approximation is not the only solution function. Another possibility is presented here, which also includes level 1:

6.1.4 Equation		m > 0

The total of all development times T_n:

This fits in well with the empirical data on the emergence of Art Homo. The oldest discovery dates back about 2.5 million years.

The sum of all development times T_n from level 2, i.e. the average development time, is added up:

This also agrees quite well with the empirical data on the development of Homo sapiens. The oldest find dates back 340,000 years.

However, the integral cannot be formed here. There is no default function for T_n
T_n differ slightly from the previous time spans T_n. However, the deviations are so small that they have no influence on the previous considerations and results, as well as the resulting rates.

With the developmental model and the associated functions, an effective tool is now available to describe and classify the development of a civilization and to clarify the question of the life span of a civilization.

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